Monitoring The Situation and How to Become a Claude Architect- The Castle Chronicle
PLUS: The Multipolar Trap and Race to Zero
Welcome to Edition 163 of The Castle Chronicle!
Gm all!
Welcome to the newest edition of the Chronicle!
You’ll get a curated list of the most important macro news and DeFi news, along with insightful posts from guests and more! Actionable intel done the Castle way 🤝
Without further ado, let’s get into it, shall we?
In The Markets
Another week in the markets and another week of oil volatility chopping up all participants.
Unfortunately, there is still no resolution to the Iran War; in fact, it seems to be escalating daily.
While we won’t pontificate on this much anymore, it is still the prevailing environment we find ourselves in. The markets are constantly watching the headlines, and things aren’t going to get better until there is some conclusion.
We’re starting to see weakness in the S&P (and stocks in general), while BTC is still capped at 73/74k. The biggest risk seems to be in Oil futures creeping back over $100, after briefly hitting $120 last Sunday.
Typically, when oil rips, everything else gets crushed, but we haven’t seen that fully happen yet. Better macro minds than us seem to think it’s only a matter of time until stocks start to slide downwards.
Not to mention higher gas prices, which have a detrimental impact to consumer's’ wallets. Spending more at the pump is inversely related to discretionary spending, like investing more in stocks and crypto.
If you want to know more about this oil risk (and where things might go), one of our favourite podcasts, Forward Guidance (by fejau and Quinn Thompson ), had a video on this recently, talking about this very topic:
Recession is a forbidden word that we hope doesn’t come to pass, but it’s a possibility that everyone should be prepared for. It’s why we’ve preached patience in the markets and prioritised research and slow-moving over willy-nilly buying.
Slow and steady wins the race, especially when cash is still a great position to have.
That being said, let’s dive into the rest of the newsletter to see what went on this past week!
Castle’s Analyst Corner
Featuring: Noveleader
Ever wanted to know exactly what’s going on in our analysts’ minds?
Then this is the section for you!
Our team will talk about anything from AI developments to crypto to even random musings from the top of the dome.
Without further ado….
The Multipolar Trap and Race to Zero
Today in the world, we witness multiple problems starting Climate Change, Economic Inequality, Environmental Degradation, and so much more. All of these problems, to some extent, exemplify the Multipolar Trap. In a multipolar trap, the interests of a few individuals or the preference for short-term gains collectively harm society.
At some point in the future, Artificial Intelligence will go through the Multipolar Trap, and in some contexts, it is still going through it. AI at this stage helps individuals ease their work, maybe speed it up, or reduce the workload altogether, but these systems are made to replace those same individuals. We all have read the Citrini Article on the Global Intelligence Crisis, which is the point when the Multipolar Trap reaches one of its extreme points, where the gains of a few individuals would be prioritised with the use of AI, and everyone else will be pushed to do the work they never wanted to do, bringing a crisis. The AI situation is a little bit different because, at some point, it might look like companies are putting nails in their own coffin, as the market will eventually blow up with less purchasing power, lower stock prices, because no one can afford to buy, and the same flows that AI helped to streamline become worthless.
Being on any side of this spectrum doesn’t look good unless you are sitting on a lot of cash, holding a glass of champagne in one hand, and watching the world burn. If you come in the latter category, that’s the peak of the Multipolar Trap, where only a few key individuals are benefiting. A large part of the population will rely on savings, UBI, and any remaining blue-collar jobs.
Additionally, the governments around the world will tend to use AI for mass surveillance, which you would have to accept because, well, you are in one way or another dependent on them. You will accept it with a smile on your face, and control of humanity and its behavioural analysis will be given into a few hands. That’s another extreme concave point in the multipolar trap.
I also believe that cypherpunk and privacy-enabled solutions (blockchains) will become an important part of history going forward, as a portion of the population will adopt the tech more deeply.
At the end, I just want to say there is nothing that could stop all of this from coming. I am not sure how or when all of this will actually become a reality, and I hope every day that it doesn’t.
Schizo’s Solitary Confinement
Welcome back, all my favorite crazies!
I took a small break from posting my solitary confinement section because, well, to be honest, there wasn’t much to speak about. Again, if we’re being real, there still isn’t much to speak about, at least not from a crypto perspective.
It’s amazing how quickly the space has dried up and how many people have pivoted away from crypto towards AI. The intersection between AI and crypto is still super interesting, but many seem to have gone dark.
So where am I spending my time right now?
Well, like everyone, I’m monitoring the situation hard right now, filling in gaps by experimenting with AI. Since crypto is stuck in a holding pattern, I find I’m more interested in messing around with equities and general macro knowledge.
This is a relative weakness for me, so I’m working to make it part of my skill set. Improving during periods like this is worthwhile, especially when you can spend a lot of dead time in this market watching crypto be range-bound for weeks.
This is where markets can be the hardest to navigate because while there is a lot happening macro-wise, there is typically not much in the way of news during these more bearish periods. It’s easy to get complacent and sit on your hands.
That’s why I choose to spend my internet free time learning what I can about macro to become more knowledgeable and well-rounded as an investor, and then simultaneously keeping a trained eye on any crypto developments to find possible opportunities for capital deployment.
But again, crypto seems to be in a holding position. Like, we’re still waiting on MegaETH to launch their token, there are a few token-less protocols holding onto their token to avoid launching in a bear market, among other things.
No one wants to drop a token when all participants are foaming at the mouth, waiting for new tokens to dump so they can secure whatever capital they can. It’s like a piranha waiting just underneath the surface, waiting for a new piece of meat to devour.
They don’t care what the meat is; they’re just hungry. That’s crypto participants right now – they are so desperate for excess capital.
Time will tell how this all plays out, but make sure you’re prepared to capitalize on anything the market gives you.
Schizo out.
Article Highlight
AI is obviously where many people’s attention has now flocked to, as the crypto markets stay high and dry.
There’s no shortage of articles that tell you “Here’s how to make 500K a year using these 10 Claude prompts!” and undoubtedly, you’ve seen some pretty bad ones.
But that shouldn’t take away from the fact that there are some great pieces of writing centred around how to prosper in a world of AI.
One such article is by our friend Hoeem, creator of the Seven c Newsletter.
He broke down the new Claude Certified Architect exam guide, reverse-engineered so anyone can learn the material.
This guide goes over 5 domains: agentic architecture and orchestration, tool design and MCP integration, Claude Code configuration and workflows, prompt engineering and structured output, and context management and reliability.
Each domain is broken down so everyone can understand what’s going on and includes prompts for interactive learning of these domains.
Kudos to Hoeem and go read the article!
That’s it for another edition of the Chronicle! Every week brings new opportunities, so don’t fret!
We’re all gonna make it eventually!
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In our newsletter, we may discuss projects or tokens in which we hold positions. While we aim to provide informative content, our views are not financial advice. Please conduct your research and consult professionals before making investment decisions. Crypto markets are volatile, and past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Invest responsibly, and be aware of the risks. Your capital is at risk, and we do not accept liability for any losses.